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Gold: The Good, Bad, and Truly Ugly

February 24, 2015
By Gary Christenson

THE GOLD STANDARD: Although it may be unrealistically optimistic, I believe my paraphrase of a Churchill quote:
“Central Bankers will eventually do the right thing and return to a gold standard after they have exhausted all other alternatives.”
While central bankers are exhausting all other alternatives, I worry about the collateral damage to 90% of the population who are not first in line on the fiat money gravy train that benefits the financial and political elite.
Read More @Original Source

COMEX Gold Analysis – Has Gold Bottomed?

February 24, 2015
Where to look for a clue on the queston whether gold has bottomed? The answer is very simple: in the market where the gold price is set, i.e. COMEX gold futures (and silver futures).
We have repeatedly shown the next chart over the last couple of months. The chart basically indicates the potential power of a gold price rally by looking at the rate of change of short positions of commercials. Those positions are represented by the blue bars on the chart. The green dotted lines indicate accumulation of short positions of commercials; the faster those positions are accumulated, the larger the stopping power.

Read More @Original Source

Gold Market Update

February 23, 2015
By Clive Maund
The reaction back by gold over the past month was preceded by an explosion in Commercial short and Large Spec long positions. On gold’s 6-month chart we can see that this reaction has been quite deep, and that it has taken the price back down below the neckline of a potential Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern, where it should have found support and turned up again. The fact that it didn’t is a negative development, that opens up the risk of a retreat back to the vicinity of the lows, although as it is short-term oversold here and on a support level, it could bounce first, then head lower. Moving averages are in a potentially strongly bearish configuration on a medium-term basis, as the 50-day is rolling over beneath a still falling 200-day.

Read More @Original Source

Silver – Brief Thoughts on its COT and Price Chart

February 22, 2015
By Dan Norcini

Following is a Weekly or intermediate term chart of silver along with a few brief comments developed around its most recent Commitments of Traders report from this past Friday.
Not long ago I did a more detailed analysis of silver which can be found here at the site noting how the Swap Dealers are the one group of traders to keep a close eye upon when it comes to this particular commodity futures market. They have an uncanny knack for being on the right side of this market when it makes its move.
I normally lay great emphasis on the activity of the speculators, particularly the large hedge funds, since they are the drivers of our modern markets, but when it come to silver, once the net positioning reaches extreme levels, more often than not, the Swap Dealers are the ones positioned correctly.
Read More @Original Source

Are Silver & Gold On Their Way to the Final Lows?

February 17, 2015
By Avi Gilburt

For the last three weeks, since we struck the most recent highs in the metals, I have been searching for a pattern which provides us greater confidence that we are finally on our way to lower lows. Unfortunately, such a pattern would likely be a leading diagonal, especially in GDX and GLD. And, for those of you that have read me long enough, you will know that I do not favor leading diagonals as strong trading cues. Nevertheless, should one complete, it would have me take a more immediate bearish perspective of the metals charts.
But, I am going to warn you before you begin reading the upcoming analysis . . . the patterns we are dealing with will be more complex than normal and this is going to be a highly technical Elliott-Wave based update.
Read More @Original Source

Very Strange Silver And Gold?

February 17, 2015
By Bill Holter
Very strange happenings in all things financial, perhaps the most strange is located within the COMEX.
First, for the last year and a half or more, we watched as gold and silver open interest steadily rises for several months and then suddenly falls in collapse fashion. The rise and collapse in open interest have not been parallel in gold and silver, often times they have been directly inverse as they now are currently. Open interest in gold is currently close to multi year lows while silver’s open interest is near multi year highs. Why is this? Why would these two metals have opposite moves in open interest? Some might say because of “spreading” or ratio trades being long one while short two the other or what have you, I don’t think so.
Going back for the last 18 months or so, we have seen an anomaly which previously did not exist. It seems as if the open interest in both gold and silver build and build and build leading up to about two weeks prior to first notice day. I have written about this several times and pointed out the huge open interest just prior to FND. Currently for example, the open interest in March silver with only 9 trading days left is about 380 million ounces. For perspective, this amount is in relation to 67 million ounces COMEX has registered and available to deliver and about 175 million ounces held in both the registered and eligible categories. Another astonishing comparison of these 380 million ounces would be to total global silver production of 800 million ounces. With only nine days left, COMEX contracts open for March are almost 50% of ALL annual silver production! For a little more perspective and in comparison in paper terms, this is less than $8 billion …or in reality, absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things.
Read More @Original Source

Silver and Gold: Why Now?

February 16, 2015
Examine the graph of the silver to gold ratio over the past 25 years.

– The major lows in silver prices during the past 25 years are marked with red arrows on the graph. They coincide, more or less, with lows in the silver to gold ratio.
– The low in November of last year is indicated by the circled red arrow.
– It seems likely that a lasting low for silver was achieved then.
Examine the graph of silver prices on a log scale for the past 25 years:
Read More @Original Source


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